Premier League results: The ‘correct’ outcome of every Gameweek 30 match revealed, according to statistics

Premier League results: The ‘correct’ outcome of every Gameweek 30 match revealed, according to statistics
This week, debate has raged about how Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United were outperforming when compared with the statistics.The Red Devils had to regress to the mean at some point but, as football analysts found ironic, their first Premier League defeat under the Norwegian came thanks to a wild shot from Granit Xhaka worth, according to UnderSTAT, 0.02 in their expected goals measurements.5

Granit Xhaka celebrates scoring against Manchester United

The website also suggested it was Man United who deserved to take all three points with Romelu Lukaku’s early miss proving crucial in the match as the Gunners claimed an undeserved victory.At the other end of the table, Cardiff City have underperformed for some time but registered a huge win over West Ham at the weekend. But was it deserved, according to the stats? Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match, with every shot taken given an xG valuebased on the difficulty of the attempt.Based on a number of factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders, the xG value reveals the likelihood a specific shot will end in a goal; the higher the value, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.5

Tottenham Hotspur star Harry Kane missed a number of chances against Southampton, including one shot valued at 0.37

The xG valueof every shot in a game is used to calculate the expected goals of a match.Click here to find out more about the calculations used to work outxG.Should a team end with a higher xG than actual goals scored, it is probable they were wasteful in front of goal due to poor finishing or an in-form opposition goalkeeper. If the real goals scored is higher than the xG, the team may have been lucky to score so many in that match, or have an above average finisher scoring hard chances others would miss.So, how did every team perform compared to their xG in the 11th round ofPremier Leaguematches? Find out below thanks to expected goals statistics from Understat.com…

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Crystal Palace vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Real result: 1-2xG result: 1.44-0.13

Southampton vs Tottenham Hotspur

Real result: 2-1xG result: 2.08-1.275

James Ward-Prowse’s free-kick was rated at 0.08, according to the expected goals model.

Newcastle United vs Everton

Real result: 3-2xG result: 2.38-1.15

Leicester City vs Fulham

Real result: 3-1xG result: 2.13-0.15

Huddersfield vs Bournemouth

Real result: 0-2xG result: 0.34-2.16

Cardiff City vs West Ham

Real result: 2-0xG result: 3.49-0.305

Cardiff were too good for West Ham

Manchester City vs Watford

Real result: 3-1xG result: 3.76-0.41

Liverpool vs Burnley

Real result: 4-2xG result: 4.12-0.47Getty5

Mane was among the goals once more as Liverpool got back to winning ways

Chelsea vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

Real result: 1-1xG result: 1.05-0.61

Arsenal vs Manchester United

Real result: 2-0xG result: 1.53-2.37

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